“In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.”- J.P. Morgan
Written by: The Advising Team
If you’ve turned on the news lately, it’s been hard to miss the headlines—this time centered on rising global tensions and increased market volatility, triggered in part by a deepening trade war. Understandably, these events spark concern. In times of uncertainty, the instinct to “do something” can be overwhelming. But when it comes to investing, action driven by anxiety often leads to regret.
Now more than ever, it’s important to return to the core of our investment philosophy: stay the course.
When markets fall sharply, the emotional desire to sell and “protect” yourself can feel like the rational thing to do. But anxiety doesn’t disappear after selling—it just shifts. Investors who move to cash may feel brief relief, but as the market starts to recover, a new anxiety creeps in: fear of missing out. This emotional whiplash—between fear and regret—is one of the most difficult cycles for investors to break. And it can be incredibly costly.
As we’ve highlighted before, Morningstar research backs this up. In their article titled “Tactical Allocation: Don’t Try This at Home” they looked at funds that use tactical asset allocation strategies—actively trying to move in and out of stocks based on market conditions. They found that these funds, managed by full-time professionals with vast resources and research teams, still underperformed simple, balanced strategies over time. And that’s just the funds that survived. Many closed down altogether due to poor results.¹
If these professional managers—who do this every day—can’t consistently time the market successfully, what does that say about the likelihood of an individual investor being able to do it better?
The truth is that market declines are not unusual. They’re expected, and in fact, they are necessary.
In 2022, we highlighted research showing that over the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 14% intra-year drop²—about the same decline we’ve just seen in 2025. While these dips may feel unsettling, they’re not anomalies—they’re a feature of investing, not a bug. Without volatility, there would be no reward for taking risk. Markets compensate long-term investors precisely because there is no guarantee. If stock prices only moved in one direction, investing would be effortless—and returns would resemble those of cash or savings accounts.
Instead, markets reward those who are willing to do the hard work: staying disciplined when fear dominates the headlines, and holding on when it feels uncomfortable.
It’s in times like these that the value of a long-term mindset truly stands out. Crises—whether trade wars, pandemics, or geopolitical conflict—will always come and go. From where we stand now, every past decline looks like an opportunity, though in the moment, each one felt like a risk. That’s why trying to predict when to get in or out is not only difficult—it’s dangerous. Hindsight makes everything obvious, but the future remains unknowable. Television shows may tout predictive insight, but more often, they merely exploit our innate craving for control amid uncertainty. But the reality is that no one has a crystal ball.
Investing is not about avoiding downturns—it’s about enduring them with purpose. The media’s job is to keep you engaged. Our job is to keep you grounded. And we do that by sticking to a philosophy grounded in evidence, not emotion.
We know that drawdowns will happen. Our role is to help you weather the storm and stay focused on your long-term goals, even when short-term noise threatens to drown them out. As the old saying wisely reminds us, success in investing doesn’t come from trying to time the market—it comes from time in the market.
Staying the course can feel toughest in moments of uncertainty—but it’s that very uncertainty that has often made long-term outcomes rewarding for disciplined investor. The uncertainty is not a flaw; it’s part of the design.
As always, we’re here to answer any questions you may have, and we deeply value the trust you’ve placed in us.
1-https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1058700/tactical-asset-allocation-dont-try-this-at-home
*Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Short term performance results should be considered in connection with longer term performance results.
